Trend Following Podcast with Michael Covel
Michael Covel, host of the popular “Trend Following” podcast, invited Moritz Seibert to his show for a conversation about “higher octane” trend following. It’s been an insightful conversation! Recorded in March 2025.
No Pain, No Long-Term Gain
Don’t let volatility confuse you, because the world and the markets are far more random than we’d like to think and can imagine. Read why we believe it’s prudent and necessary to accept volatility and drawdowns rather than following an investment approach that seeks to achieve the opposite but is hazardous to our capital.
The Sydney Turtle Special
A stimulating Saturday morning conversation about systematic, rules-based trend following and market risks featuring Jerry Parker (Chesapeake Capital), Adam Havryliv (ECCM), Moritz Heiden, and Moritz Seibert. Hosted by Simon Mansell and Richard Brennan. Recorded on November 18, 2023 on Scotland Island north of Sydney.
Trading the Night Effect
Or: The dream of making money while you sleep. We comment on an article published by the Financial Times about the so-called “night effect” in stocks, which refers to a recurring pattern of higher stock returns during overnight periods compared to intraday trading sessions.
Bloomberg Is Making Stuff Up
Authors at Bloomberg claim that a disruptive group of traders, namely trend following CTAs, have seized control of the oil market. Really?
Why We Trade Systems
We trade systems for two primary reasons: First, because trading involves emotions, we’d be our own worst enemy if we didn’t follow a rules-based approach. Second, we (and most others) are really terrible when it comes to making predictions.
R-Multiples and Expectancy
Expectancy in trading refers to the average R-multiple that a trading system generates over a series of trades. An R-multiple is a way of expressing profits and losses as a multiple of the initial risk taken on a trade (R, as R=Risk).
Volatility vs. Average True Range
The utilization of average true range (ATR) by systematic trend following CTAs to determine position sizes and stop levels is an effective and valuable means of normalizing expected P&L.